Ukuqala kuka-2022: ukwanda okujwayelekile okungaphezu kuka-15%, ukukhuphuka kwentengoamabhethri amandlaisabalele kulo lonke uchungechunge lwezimboni

Isifinyezo

Izikhulu eziningana zeamandla ibhethriizinkampani zithe intengo yamabhethri kagesi ngokuvamile inyuke ngaphezu kuka-15%, kanti amanye amakhasimende anyuke ngo-20% -30%.

Ekuqaleni kuka-2022, imizwa yokunyuka kwentengo kulo lonke uchungechunge lwezimboni zeamabhethri amandlasekubhebhetheke, futhi ukwenyuka kwentengo kuzwakale ngokulandelana.

Mayelana nokusebenza kwetheminali, amanani entengo yezimoto ezisebenza ngamandla amasha anyuke ngokuhlanganyela.Intengo yezimoto zamandla amasha ibilokhu iqinile, futhi ekugcineni yaphula ukuzivikela, yabeka ukwenyuka kwentengo enkulu, kusukela ezinkulungwaneni zamayuan kuya emashumini ezinkulungwane zamayuan.

Kusukela emzuliswaneni wokuqala wokwenyuka kwentengo ekupheleni konyaka odlule, imakethe yezimoto ezisebenza ngamandla emisha isingenise umzuliswano wesibili wokwenyuka kwamanani.Ngokwezibalo ezingaphelele, cishe izinkampani zezimoto ezingama-20 sezimemezele ukwenyuka kwentengo yezinhlobo zazo ezintsha zamandla, okuhlanganisa i-Tesla, BYD, Xiaopeng, SAIC Roewe, Volkswagen, njll., ehlanganisa amabutho azimele, axhaswe kwamanye amazwe, ama-joint-venture kanye namabutho amasha, okubandakanya abaningi njengamamodeli amaningana.eziyishumi.

Isibonelo, i-BYD yamemezela ngoFebhuwari 1 ukuthi izolungisa izintengo zayo ezisemthethweni zomhlahlandlelaamandla amashaamamodeli ahlobene noBukhosi bayo kanye no-Ocean.i, i-Yuan Pro, i-Han EV/DM, i-Tang DM-i, i-2021 i-Tang DM, i-Dolphin namanye amamodeli athengiswayo ashisayo, ukukhuphuka kungu-1,000-7,000 yuan.

Izici eziyinhloko zokushayela ezibangela ukukhuphuka kwentengo emakethe yezimoto zamandla amasha yilezi: okokuqala, uxhaso lwehle ngo-30%, lwehlisa ama-yuan angu-5,400 amabhayisikili ngaphezu kuka-400km afinyelela izinga;okwesibili, ukuntuleka kwama-cores kanye namanani aphezulu wempahla eluhlaza kuye kwaholela ezindlekweni eziphezulu;okwesithathu, , inani leamandla ibhethriiyadluliselwa, futhi ifektri yenjini eyinhloko iphoqeleka ukuba ilungise inani, futhi ekugcineni ayinakho ukukhetha ngaphandle kokudlulisa ukucindezela kwezindleko emakethe yokugcina.

Intengo yeamabhethri amandlangokuvamile ikhuphuke ngaphezu kuka-15%.Inombolo yeamandla ibhethriabaphathi benkampani batshele iGaogong Lithium ukuthi intengo yeamabhethri amandlangokuvamile ikhuphuke ngaphezu kuka-15%, kanti amanye amakhasimende anyuke ngo-20% -30%.

“Ngeke ihlale isikhathi eside uma ingavuki” isiphenduke insakavukela umchilo wesidwaba kodwa futhi iyizwi langempela lezinkampani zamabhethri.

Kusukela ngo-2021, uchungechunge lwemboni yamandla entsha yasekhaya belusesimweni sokutholakala okuqinile kanye nebhalansi yesidingo, kanye nezintengo ezinkulu.ibhethri ye-lithiumizinto zokwakha ziye zaqhubeka nokukhuphuka, okwenza izindleko zamabhethri amandla zikhuphuke kakhulu.

Ngonyaka odlule, izinkampani zamabhethri zathatha futhi zagaya iningi lengcindezi ekhuphukayo yezindleko zempahla eluhlaza.Ngo-2022, ukushoda kwezinto zokusetshenziswa kanye nokukhuphuka kwentengo ngeke nje kucindezelwe, kodwa kuzoqina.Ingcindezi yezindleko zezinkampani zamabhethri inkulu, kanti futhi akusizi ukuyidlulisela phansi ezinkampanini zezimoto.

“Ngeke isebenze uma ingavuki.Ngo-2022, izindleko zeamabhethri amandlaizonyuka okungenani ngo-50% uma kuqhathaniswa nonyaka odlule.”Ophethe inkampani ekhiqiza ama-battery washo ngokungananazi ukuthi izinto ezisetshenziswayo zokulondoloza isitoko kade zaphela, namanani ezinto ezisetshenziswayo asakhuphuka.Uma kubhekwa izimali zokwandisa umthamo, ingcindezi ezinkampanini zamabhethri iphezulu ngempela.inkulu kakhulu.

Umhlangano wezinto zokusetshenziswa “uyahlanya”.Ngo-2022, amanani entengo yezinto ezine eziphambili, i-nickel/cobalt/lithium/copper/aluminium, lithium hydroxide, lithium carbonate, lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, VC, njll. ekuqaleni konyaka, okubonisa iphethini “yokweqa” .

Ukuthatha i-lithium carbonate, okuyiyona esebenza kakhulu ekwenyukeni kwentengo, njengesibonelo, intengo emaphakathi ye-lithium carbonate ebangeni lebhethri ngoSuku LukaNcibijane ngo-2022 ingu-300,000 yuan/ton, okukhuphuke ngo-454% ukusuka enanini eliyisilinganiso lika-55,000 yuan. /ton ekuqaleni konyaka odlule.Izindaba zakamuva, kusukela manje, ukucaphuna okuphelele kwe-lithium carbonate ebangeni lebhethri sekufinyelele ku-420,000-465,000 yuan / ton, futhi imakethe ibike ukuthi "amakhasimende azothenga i-lithium carbonate awayibuzi intengo, azoyithola. uma benezimpahla”, okukhombisa izinga lokushoda kwempahla kanye nesidingo.

Idatha yemboni ibonisa ukuthi ezimotweni ezihlanzekile zikagesi, lapho intengo ye-lithium carbonate ikhuphuka ifika ku-300,000 yuan/ton, izindleko zemoto ngayinye ehlanzekile kagesi ikhuphuka cishe ngama-yuan angu-8,000;lapho intengo ye-lithium carbonate ikhuphukela ku-400,000 yuan/ton, the Izindleko zemoto kagesi zikhuphuke cishe ngama-yuan ayi-11,000.

Ngokusekelwe kulokhu, isinqumo esivumelana ngazwi linye embonini siwukuthi intengo yezinto zokusetshenziswa iyaqhubeka nokukhuphuka, okubangela izindleko zeamabhethri amandlaukweqa umkhawulo wengcindezi ephezulu yezinkampani zamabhethri, futhi ingcindezi yezindleko inkulu.

Eqinisweni, ngenxa yokwenyuka kwamanani entengo yezinto ezibonakalayo, izindleko zethiyori zamaseli kanyeibhethriamasistimu akhuphuke ngaphezu kuka-30% ngaphambi kuka-2021Q3, ngisho nokucabangela umthelela wokubambisana wesikhathi eside, amandla okuxoxisana, umthamo wokuthenga, isikhathi se-akhawunti, njll. ezindlekweni zangempela zokuthenga, kanye Nezici ezifana nokusebenza komkhiqizo webhethri, isivuno , kanye nokukhuphuka kwezinga lokuqoqana ukuze kuvikelwe ngokumelene nengcindezi ekhuphukayo yezinye izindleko zempahla, kanye nezindleko zokukhuphuka kwamanani ezinto zokusetshenziswa ezithunyelwaamandla ibhethriUhlangothi nalo lukhuphuka cishe ngo-20% -25%.

Kodwa-ke, kusukela ngo-2022, izinto zokusetshenziswa ziqhubekile nokukhuphuka, futhi izindleko zezinto ezingavuthiwe ekugcineni kweseli ziye zanda ngaphezu kuka-50% uma kuqhathaniswa nonyaka odlule, okudabukisa nakakhulu ezinkampanini eziningi zamabhethri esezivele ziseduze. yenzuzo ngo-2021. "Showdown" nama-OEM, efuna ukugaya enye ingcindezi eyehla nomfula.

Okwesigaba sesithathu nesesineibhethriizinkampani ezinosayizi omncane namandla abuthakathaka ezezimali, kubuhlungu nakakhulu.Sebezobhekana nesimo esiyihlazo sokuthi abakwazi ukuthola izimpahla futhi abakwazi ukukhiqiza ngama-oda.

Kodwa-ke, ngisho nezinkampani zebhethri eziyinhloko ezinesilinganiso esikhulu namandla okuxoxisana aqinile azikwazi ukufanisa isivinini sokukhuphuka kwentengo yezinto ezingavuthiwe ngenxa yokukhiya intengo yesikhathi eside namandla okukhiya impahla eluhlaza.Intengo yamabhethri nayo inyuke ngezinga elithile.Isibonelo, i-BYD yamemezela ngoNovemba wonyaka odlule ukuthi intengo yeminye imikhiqizo yebhethri kufanele inyuswe ngokungekho ngaphansi kuka-20%.

Njengamanje, ukukhuphuka kwezintengo zebhethri kushintshile kusuka emandleni edijithali namancane kuya emandleni futhiukugcinwa kwamandla, futhi izinkampani zesigaba sesibili nesesithathu sezithuthukele ezinkampanini ezihamba phambili, futhi sezidluliselwe ngokugcwele ezimakethe ezingaphansi komfula ngisho nezimakethe.

Njengoba ibhekene nomjikelezo omusha wokwenyuka kwamanani, yonke imboni yezimoto ezintsha ezisebenza ngamandla icubungula imibono yokunciphisa izindleko kanye namasu okubhekana nawo ukuze kuncishiswe umthelela kanye nokuqinisekisa ukukhula okuqhubekayo nokushesha kwemboni yezimoto zamandla amasha.

Ebusweni bokusabalala kokwenyuka kwentengo, into ebaluleke kakhulu kuma-OEM ukukhuthaza ngokuphelele ukwehla kwezindleko kuzo zonke izilinganiso, okuhlanganisa nokuthuthukisa ubuchwepheshe obusha nezinkampani zamabhethri, ukuthuthukisa izinkomba zobuchwepheshe bomkhiqizo, ukwakha ukuncintisana okuhlukene, kanye nokwenza ngcono ukuncintisana okuphelele. yemakethe yemikhiqizo, njll.

Ngaphezu kwalokho, amanye ama-OEM akhetha ukuthatha isinyathelo sokunciphisa ukwethulwa kwamamodeli amasha, ukuze anciphise ukulahlekelwa, acabangele ukwehlisa ukukhiqizwa nokuthengiswa kwamamodeli ngokulahlekelwa okukhulu, futhi esikhundleni salokho akhuthaze amamodeli aphakathi kuya kwaphezulu ubuhlakani obuphezulu kanye nenzuzo engcono.

Isibonelo, isu lenkampani yezimoto alikona ukunyusa intengo yamamodeli abalulekile, kodwa ukuguqula imikhiqizo ehlakaniphile yokuzikhethela ibe yimishini evamile, ukuze kuncishiswe ingcindezi yezindleko ezikhulayo futhi kuncishiswe ukumelana kwabathengi ekukhuphukeni kwentengo.

Kwamanye ama-OEM e-A00-class, amasu awo ahlukile.Isibonelo, amamodeli athengiswa kakhulu e-Great Wall's A00-class Black Cat kanye ne-White Cat athathe isinyathelo sokuyeka ukuthatha ama-oda.Enye i-OEM yezinga le-A00 ithe ngokuzayo, ingadela ngokuzithandela uxhaso, yehlise umkhiqizo.ibhethriimpilo kanye nokuma komkhiqizo, futhi ulondoloze ukuthengisa ngokubeka uphawu lokubonisa i-Hongguang Mini EV.

Ezinkampanini zamabhethri, yonke imizamo kufanele yenziwe ukunciphisa izindleko zangaphakathi futhi kuthuthukiswe ukusebenza kahle.Ezinye izinkampani zamabhethri ziyavuma ukuthi asikho isikhala esiningi sokunciphisa izindleko kubuchwepheshe bomkhiqizo, futhi indlela yokuthuthukisa ukusebenza kahle kokukhiqiza kanye nekhwalithi iba ukhiye;ngesikhathi esifanayo, ukushintshwa kwasekhaya kuma-chips adingeka kancane kanye neminye imikhakha nakho kuyakhula.

Sekukonke, intengo yezinto zokusetshenziswa iyaqhubeka nokukhuphuka, futhi izindleko eziphezulu zeamabhethri amandlayisiphetho esingalindelekile.Amandla ebhethriizinkampani kufanele ziphule kancane kancane ubudlelwano obulula bokuthenga nokudayisa esikhathini esedlule, zenze uhlobo olusha lobambiswano, zenze ukubambisana kwamasu ngezinga elikhulu futhi ezingeni elijulile, zikhuthaze intuthuko edidiyelwe ye-supply chain, futhi zilolonge kabusha uchungechunge olusha lokuhlinzeka. imodeli.

Ngokwesu lempahla yokusetshenziswa, izinkampani zamabhethri anamandla nazo zisheshisa isu lokukhiya impahla eluhlaza.Ngokusayina izivumelwano zesiqinisekiso sokuhlinzekwa kwempahla nabahlinzeki, ukutshala izimali kumasheya, ukusungula amabhizinisi ahlanganyelwe, nokuhlola ngenkuthalo abahlinzeki abasha, ukungena ngaphakathi kokuthengwa kwezinto ezibalulekile zokusetshenziswa, ukwakheka kwemithombo yezimbiwa phansi, kanye nesakhiwo sokugaywa kabusha kwamabhethri , kanye nokuthuthukisa ngokugcwele ukuncintisana kochungechunge lokuhlinzeka ngebhizinisi. .