Ukuhlaziywa kwemakethe yemboni yebhethri ye-lithium yethuluzi lamandla

Iibhethri ye-lithiumesetshenziswa kumathuluzi amandla icylindrical lithiumibhethri.Amabhethri wamathuluzi kagesi asetshenziswa kakhuluamabhethri anezinga eliphezulu.Ngokwesimo sohlelo lokusebenza, umthamo webhethri uvala i-1Ah-4Ah, okuyi-1Ah-3Ah ikakhulukazi.18650, futhi 4Ah ikakhulukazi21700.Izidingo zamandla zisukela ku-10A kuye ku-30A, futhi umjikelezo wokukhipha oqhubekayo uyizikhathi ezingama-600.

Ngokusho kweLeading Industry Research Institute, indawo yemakethe elinganiselwa ku-2020 ingama-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyi-15, kanti indawo yemakethe engaphambili icishe ibe ngama-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-22.Intengo evamile yeyodwaibhethringoba amathuluzi kagesi cishe 11-16 yuan.Uma kucatshangwa ukuthi inani leyunithi elijwayelekile lama-yuan ayi-13 ibhethri ngalinye, kulinganiselwa ukuthi ivolumu yokuthengisa ngo-2020 izoba cishe bhiliyoni eyi-1.16, kanti indawo yemakethe ngo-2020 izoba cishe ama-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyi-15, kanti izinga lokukhula elihlanganisiwe kulindeleke ukuthi libe ngu-10% .Indawo yemakethe ngo-2024 icishe ibe ngama-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-22.

Izinga lokungena lamathuluzi angenantambo okwamanje lidlula ama-50%.Ibhethri ye-lithiumizindleko akhawunti 20% -30%.Ngokusekelwe kulesi sibalo esinzima, ngo-2024, umhlaba jikeleleibhethri ye-lithiumimakethe izofinyelela okungenani 29.53 billion-44.3 billion yuan.

Ukuhlanganisa izindlela ezimbili ezingenhla zokulinganisa, usayizi wemakethe weamabhethri e-lithium wamathuluzi wamandlailinganiselwa ku-20 kuya ku-30 ​​billion.Kungabonakala ukuthi uma kuqhathaniswa namandla amabhethri e-lithium ezimotweni zikagesi, indawo yemakethe yeamabhethri e-lithiumngoba amathuluzi kagesi mancane.

Ngo-2019, umphumela womhlaba wonke weamathuluzi amandla ebhethri ye-lithiumidlule amayunithi ayizigidi ezingama-240.Owokuqalaamabhethri ethuluzi lamandlazithunyelwa cishe amayunithi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyi-1.1 unyaka ngamunye.

Amandla we-aiseli yebhethri eyodwaisukela ku-5-9wh, iningi lazo lingama-7.2wh.Kungalinganiselwa ukuthi umthamo wamanje ofakiwe weamabhethri ethuluzi lamandlacishe 8-9Gwh.I-Leading Industry Research Institute ilindele ukuthi umthamo ofakiwe ngo-2020 uzosondela ku-10Gwh.

Ukukhuphuka komfula kuyizinto ezisebenzayo ze-electrode, izinto ezingezinhle ze-electrode, ama-electrolyte, izihlukanisi, njll. Abahlinzeki bahlanganisa i-Tianli Lithium Energy, i-Beterui, njll.

Kusukela ekuqaleni kukaJanuwari 2021, ngenxa yokwenyuka kwamanani ezinto ezibonakalayo, abaningiibhethri cylindricalizimboni ezifana ne-Tianpeng ne-Penghui seziqalile ukwenyusa amanani azo.Kuyabonakala ukuthiibhethri ye-lithiumizinkampani zinamandla athile okudlulisa izindleko.
Ezansi kukhona izinkampani zamathuluzi kagesi, njenge: Innovation Technology Industry, Hitachi, Japan's Panasonic, METABO, Hilti, Ruiqi, Yexing Technology, Nanjing Deshuo, Bosch, Makita, Schneider, Stanley Black & Decker, njll. Isimo sokuncintisana samathuluzi kagesi singu kugxile kakhulu.I-echelon yokuqala yi-TTI Innovation and Technology Industry, uStanley Black & Decker, kanye ne-Bosch.Ngo-2018, ingxenye yemakethe yezinkampani ezintathu icishe ibe ngu-18-19%, kanti i-CR3 cishe i-55%.Imikhiqizo yamathuluzi amandla ingahlukaniswa ngokwezinga lochwepheshe kanye nebanga lomthengi.Esidingweni sokugcina samathuluzi kagesi, izakhiwo zezentengiselwano zibalelwe ku-15.94%, izakhiwo zezimboni zibalelwe ku-13.98%, umhlobiso nobunjiniyela zibalwe ku-9.02%, kanti izakhiwo zokuhlala zibalwe ku-15.94%.U-8.13%, ukwakhiwa kwemishini kubalele ku-3.01%, izinhlobo ezinhlanu zokufunwa zibalele isamba esingu-50.08%, futhi isidingo esihlobene nokwakhiwa komfula ongezansi sibalelwe ngaphezu kwesigamu.Kungabonakala ukuthi ukwakhiwa kuyinkambu ebaluleke kakhulu yesicelo sokugcina kanye nomthombo wesidingo emakethe yamathuluzi kagesi.

Ngaphezu kwalokho, iNyakatho Melika iyisifunda esidinga kakhulu amathuluzi kagesi, sibalwa kuma-34% okuthengiswa kwemakethe yamathuluzi kagesi emhlabeni jikelele, imakethe yaseYurophu ngama-30%, kanye ne-Europe kanye ne-United States ingqikithi yama-64%.Ziyizimakethe zamathuluzi wamandla amabili abaluleke kakhulu emhlabeni.Izimakethe zaseYurophu nezaseMelika zinesabelo semakethe esikhulu kunazo zonke samathuluzi kagesi emhlabeni ngenxa yendawo yazo yokuhlala ephakeme ngomuntu ngamunye kanye nemali engenayo ephezulu emhlabeni esetshenziswayo umuntu ngamunye.Indawo yokuhlala enkulu ngomuntu ngamunye inikeze isikhala esengeziwe sokufaka isicelo samathuluzi kagesi, futhi iphinde yavusa isidingo samathuluzi kagesi ezimakethe zaseYurophu nezaseMelika.Izinga eliphezulu lemali engenayo etholakalayo ngomuntu ngamunye lisho ukuthi abathengi baseYurophu nabaseMelika banamandla aqinile okuthenga, futhi bangakwazi ukuwathenga.Ngokuzimisela namandla okuthenga, izimakethe zaseYurophu nezaseMelika seziphenduke imakethe yamathuluzi kagesi enkulu kunazo zonke emhlabeni.

Isamba senzuzo yomkhawulo wezinkampani zebhethri ye-lithium yethuluzi lamandla ingaphezu kuka-20%, kanti inzuzo yenzuzo yonke ilinganiselwa ku-10%.Banezimfanelo ezijwayelekile zokwenziwa kwempahla enzima kanye nezimpahla ezingashintshi.Uma kuqhathaniswa ne-inthanethi, utshwala, ukusetshenziswa nezinye izimboni, ukwenza imali kunzima kakhulu.

Isimo sokuncintisana

Abahlinzeki abakhulu beamabhethri ethuluzi lamandlayizinkampani zaseJapan naseKorea.Ngo-2018, i-Samsung SDI, i-LG Chem, ne-Murata ndawonye babalelwa ku-75% wemakethe.Phakathi kwabo, i-Samsung SDI ingumholi ophelele, ibalwa ku-45% wesabelo semakethe yomhlaba wonke.

Phakathi kwazo, imali ye-Samsung SDI kumabhethri amancane e-lithium icishe ibe yizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyi-6.

Ngokwemininingwane evela ku-Advanced Industry Research Institute ofIbhethri ye-Lithium(GGII), ithuluzi lamandla asekhayaibhethri ye-lithiumUkuthunyelwa ngo-2019 bekungama-5.4GWh, okukhuphuke ngo-54.8% unyaka nonyaka.Phakathi kwazo, iTianpeng Power (inkampani engaphansi kweBlue Lithium Core (SZ:002245)), i-Yiwei Lithium Energy, kanye noHaisida bakleliswe kwabathathu abaphezulu.

Ezinye izinkampani zasekhaya zifaka: Penghui Energy, Changhong Energy, Del Neng, Hooneng Co., Ltd., Ousai Energy, Tianhong Lithium Battery,

Shandong Weida (002026), Hanchuan Intelligent, Kane, Far East, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, Lishen Battery, njll.

Izici ezibalulekile zokuncintisana

Njengoba ukugxila kwemboni yamathuluzi kagesi kuqhubeka nokwanda, kubaluleke kakhuluithuluzi lamandla lithium ibhethriizinkampani ukuthi zingene ochungechungeni lokunikezela ngamakhasimende ambalwa aphezulu.Izidingo zamakhasimende amakhulu zeamabhethri e-lithiumyilezi: ukwethembeka okuphezulu, izindleko eziphansi, namandla okukhiqiza anele.

Uma sikhuluma ngobuchwepheshe, i-Blue Lithium Core, i-Yiwei Lithium Energy, i-Haistar, i-Penghui Energy, ne-Changhong Energy zonke zingahlangabezana nezidingo zamakhasimende amakhulu, ngakho-ke ukhiye yisikali.Amabhizinisi amakhulu kuphela angaqinisekisa umthamo wokukhiqiza wamakhasimende amakhulu, aqhubeke nokunciphisa izindleko, athole inzuzo ephakeme, bese etshala ocwaningweni oluphakeme nasekuthuthukisweni ukuze ahlangabezane nezidingo ezintsha zamakhasimende amakhulu ngokuqhubekayo.

Isikali sokukhiqiza amandla e-Lithium sika-Yiwei siyizingcezu ezingu-900,000 ngosuku, i-Azure Lithium Core ingu-800,000, kanti i-Changhong Energy iyizi-400,000.Imigqa yokukhiqiza ingenisiwe ivela eJapan naseNingizimu Korea, ikakhulukazi iSouth Korea.

Izinga lokuzenzakalelayo lomugqa wokukhiqiza kufanele libe phezulu, ukuze ukuvumelana kwekhwalithi yomkhiqizo kuphezulu, ukuze kungene uchungechunge lokuhlinzeka ngamakhasimende amakhulu.

Uma ubudlelwano bokuhlinzeka sebuqinisekisiwe, izinguquko ngeke zenziwe kalula esikhathini esifushane, futhiibhethri ye-lithiumizinkampani ezingena ku-supply chain zizogcina isabelo semakethe esizinzile isikhathi esithile.Thatha i-TTI njengesibonelo, ukukhetha kwayo abahlinzeki kufanele kudlule ekucwaningweni kwamabhuku angama-230, okwathatha cishe iminyaka emi-2.Bonke abahlinzeki abasha kudingeka bahlolwe ngezindinganiso zemvelo nezenhlalakahle futhi baqinisekise ukuthi akukho ukwephulwa okukhulu okutholakalayo.

Ngakho-ke, ezifuywayoithuluzi lamandla lithium ibhethriizinkampani zandisa ngamandla amandla azo okukhiqiza kanye nezikali, zingena ezitolo zamakhasimende amakhulu afana noBlack & Decker kanye ne-TTI.

Abashayeli bokusebenza

Ukushintshwa kwamathuluzi kagesi kuvame ukuqhathaniswa, futhi kunesidingo sokushintshwa esitokweni.

Ukukhula kwempilo yebhethri kwamanye amathuluzi kagesi kukhuphule inaniamabhethri, kancane kancane ikhula isuka ku-3 iye ku-6-10.

Izinga lokungena lamathuluzi wamandla angenazintambo liyaqhubeka nokukhula.

Uma kuqhathaniswa namathuluzi wamandla angenazintambo, amathuluzi wamandla angenazintambo anezinzuzo ezisobala: 1) Aguquguqukayo futhi ayaphatheka.Njengoba amathuluzi kagesi angenazintambo engenazo izintambo futhi asikho isidingo sokuthembela kumandla asizayo, amathuluzi angenazintambo ahlinzeka ngokuguquguquka okukhulu nokuphatheka;2) Ukuphepha, lapho usebenza kumaphrojekthi amaningi noma ezindaweni ezincane, amathuluzi angenazintambo avumela abasebenzisi ukuthi bahambe ngokukhululeka ngaphandle kokukhubeka noma izintambo eziboshwe.Ikakhulukazi ezinkampanini noma osonkontileka abadinga ukuhamba bezungeza indawo yokwakha njalo, izindaba zokuphepha zibaluleke kakhulu;I-3) Ukugcina kalula, amathuluzi wamandla angenazintambo ngokuvamile kulula ukuwagcina kunamathuluzi anezintambo, ama-drill angenazintambo, ama-saha, kanye nama- impactors angafakwa Kumadrowa namashalofu, ngokuvamile kuvame ukuba neziqukathi ezihlukene zokugcina amathuluzi kanye namabhethri azo anamathiselwe;4) Umsindo mncane, ukungcola kuncane, futhi isikhathi sokusebenza side.

Ngo-2018, izinga lokungena okungenantambo lamathuluzi kagesi lalingu-38%, futhi isikali sasingu-$17.1 billion;ngo-2019, bekungama-40%, kanti isikali sasingama-US $ 18.4 billion.Ngokuthuthuka kobuchwepheshe bebhethri nezimoto kanye nokwehla kwezindleko, izinga lokungena okungenantambo lesikhathi esizayo lizogcina inkambiso ekhuphukayo esheshayo, ezovuselela isidingo sokushintshwa kwabathengi, kanye nenani eliphakeme elimaphakathi lamathuluzi wamandla angenazintambo lizosiza ukwandisa imakethe.

Uma kuqhathaniswa nawo wonke amathuluzi kagesi, izinga lokungena okungenantambo lezinto zikagesi ezinkulu lisephansi kakhulu.Ngo-2019, izinga lokungena elingenantambo lemishini kagesi emikhulu lalingama-13% kuphela, kanti usayizi wemakethe wawungamadola ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-4.366 kuphela.Izinto zikagesi ezinkulu ngokuvamile zinkulu futhi zinamandla amakhulu, futhi ngokuvamile zinenhloso yazo ethile, njengezihlanzi ezisebenza ngamandla egesi, iziguquli zefreyimu, ama-deicers echibi, njll. Kunezizathu ezimbili eziyinhloko zezinga eliphansi lokungena okungenazintambo izinto zikagesi ezinkulu: 1) Izidingo eziphakeme zamandla okukhipha ibhethri namandla amakhulu, amasistimu ebhethri ayinkimbinkimbi neziqinisekiso zokuphepha eziqinile, okuholela ebunzimeni bezobuchwepheshe kanye nobunzima bobuchwepheshe bezinto zikagesi ezingenazintambo ezinkulu Izindleko ziphakeme uma kuqhathaniswa;2) Okwamanje, abakhiqizi abakhulu abakayithathi intambo kagesi yezinga elikhulu njengento okugxilwe kuyo ocwaningweni nasekuthuthukisweni.Kodwa-ke, ngokuthuthukiswa okunamandla kwezimoto ezintsha zamandla eminyakeni yamuva, ubuchwepheshe bamabhethri amakhulu amakhulu buye benza inqubekelaphambili enkulu, futhi kusenendawo enkulu yezinga lokungena okungenazintambo zemishini kagesi emikhulu esikhathini esizayo.

Ukushintsha kwasekhaya: Abakhiqizi basekhaya banezinzuzo ezibalulekile zezindleko.Ngaphansi kwesizinda sokungabikho umehluko obalulekile kwezobuchwepheshe, ukushintshwa kwasekhaya sekuphenduke inkambiso.

Eminyakeni yakamuva, i-Yiwei Lithium Energy yasekhaya kanye ne-Tianpeng bangene ochungechungeni lokuhlinzeka ngabahlinzeki bohlobo lokuqala abafana ne-TTI kanye ne-Ba & Decker.Izizathu eziyinhloko ziyi-1) Ezingeni lobuchwepheshe, abakhiqizi bekhanda basekhaya abakude nezinkampani ezihamba phambili zaseJapane naseSouth Korea, futhi amathuluzi kagesi anezimo ezikhethekile zokufaka isicelo., Okuholela esidingweni sokushaja okusheshayo nokukhululwa okusheshayo, ngakhoamabhethri anezinga eliphezuluziyadingeka.Esikhathini esidlule, izinkampani zaseJapane naseKorea zinezinzuzo ezithile ekuqongeleleniamabhethri anezinga eliphezulu.Kodwa-ke, njengoba izinkampani zasekhaya zephule ibhodlela lamanje lokukhishwa kwe-20A eminyakeni yamuva, izinga lobuchwepheshe liye lahlangatshezwana nalo.Ukuze kuhlangatshezwane nezidingo eziyisisekelo zamathuluzi kagesi, amathuluzi kagesi angenile esigabeni sokuncintisana kwezindleko.

2) Izindleko zasekhaya ziphansi kakhulu kunezabakhiqizi baphesheya kwezilwandle.Inzuzo yamanani izosiza abakhiqizi basekhaya ukuthi baqhubeke nokuthatha isabelo saseJapane neNingizimu Korea.Kusukela ohlangothini lwamanani, ububanzi bentengo yemikhiqizo ye-Tianpeng yi-8-13 yuan / ucezu, kuyilapho ibhendi yentengo ye-Samsung SDI ingu-11. -18 yuan / ucezu, oluhambisana nokuqhathaniswa kwemikhiqizo yohlobo olufanayo, intengo ye-Tianpeng ingaphansi ngo-20% kunaleyo ye-Samsung SDI.

Ngaphezu kwe-TTI, Black & Decker, Bosch, njll. njengamanje basheshisa ukwethulwa kokuqinisekisa kanye nokwethulwaamabhethri angama-cylindricaleChina.Ngokusekelwe kunqubekelaphambili esheshayo yezimboni zamaseli asekhaya emkhakheni weamaseli e-cylindrical aphezulu, kanye nezinzuzo ezibanzi zokusebenza, isikali, kanye nezindleko, ukukhetha kwesikhonzi samandla ochungechungeni lokuhlinzekwa kwamaseli kuphendukele e-China ngokusobala.

Ngo-2020, ngenxa yomthelela wohlobo olusha lwe-coronavirus pneumonia, amandla okukhiqiza amabhethri eJapan kanye naseNingizimu Korea awanele, okuholela ekushodeni.cylindrical li-ion lithium-ion ibhethriukunikezwa kwemakethe, kanye nembuyiselo yasekhaya ekukhiqizeni okuvamile ngaphambili, umthamo wokukhiqiza ungavala igebe elifanele, futhi usheshise inqubo yokushintshwa kwasekhaya.

Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukukhula kwemboni yamathuluzi amandla kuhlotshaniswa kahle nedatha yezindlu yaseNyakatho Melika.Kusukela ekuqaleni kuka-2019, imakethe yezindlu zaseNyakatho Melika iqhubekile nokushisa, futhi kulindeleke ukuthi isidingo sokugcina saseNyakatho Melika samathuluzi kagesi sizohlala siphezulu ngo-2021-2022.Ngaphezu kwalokho, ngemuva kokulungiswa kwesizini ngoDisemba 2020, isilinganiso se-inventory-to-sale sabathengisi baseNyakatho Melika singu-1.28 kuphela, esiphansi kunohlu lokuphepha lomlando luka-1.3-1.5, oluzovula isidingo sokuphinda sigcwaliswe.

Imakethe yezindlu zase-US ikumjikelezo we-boom, ozoqhuba isidingo samathuluzi kagesi emakethe yaseNyakatho Melika.Izilinganiso zenzalo yezindlu ezibolekwayo zase-US zisezingeni eliphansi ngokomlando, futhi ukukhula kwemakethe yezindlu zase-US kuzoqhubeka.Thatha imali mboleko yeminyaka engama-30 yezinga lenzalo engaguquki njengesibonelo.Ngo-2020, ngenxa yomthelela wobhubhane olusha lomqhele, i-Federal Reserve iphinde yasebenzisa inqubomgomo yezimali exegayo.Inani eliphansi kakhulu lemali mboleko yeminyaka engama-30 yezinga lenzalo engashintshi lifike ku-2.65%, okuyirekhodi eliphansi.Kulinganiselwa ukuthi inani lezindawo zokuhlala ezisanda kwakhiwa ezizimele e-United States ekugcineni lingase lidlule izigidi ezingu-2,5, okuyirekhodi eliphakeme kakhulu.

Isidingo sokugcina kanye nomjikelezo wokusungula okuhlobene nezindlu ezithengiswayo kuzwakala phezulu, okuzoqhuba kakhulu isidingo samathuluzi kagesi, nezinkampani zamathuluzi kagesi zizozuza kakhulu kulo mjikelezo.Ukukhula kwezinkampani zamathuluzi kagesi kuzophinde kukhuthaze kakhulu izinkampani zebhethri ye-lithium ekhuphukayo.

Kafushane, iithuluzi lamandla lithium ibhethrikulindeleke ukuthi ibe senkathini yokuchuma eminyakeni emithathu ezayo, kanti abaphezulu basekhaya bazozuza ngokushintshwa kwasekhaya: i-Yiwei Lithium Energy, i-Azure Lithium Core, i-Haistar, i-Changhong Energy, njll. I-Yiwei Lithium Energy namanye amabhizinisi ebhethri ye-lithium njengeamabhethri amandlafuthi babe namathemba amahle.Inkampani inezinzuzo zobuchwepheshe nezikali, amakhono aqinile okubheka phambili, kanye nezinzuzo ezisobala zokuncintisana.Nakuba umkhakha webhethri le-lithium ukhula ngezinga eliphezulu, kukhona nama-LED nezinsimbi.Ibhizinisi Logistics, ibhizinisi kuqhathaniswa eziyinkimbinkimbi;U-Haistar akakafakwa ohlwini;I-Changhong Energy incane uma kuqhathaniswa ongqimbeni olukhethiwe lweBhodi Lesithathu Lesithathu, kodwa ikhule ngokushesha;ngaphezu kwebhizinisi lebhethri ye-lithium, ngaphezu kwesigamu amabhethri omile ane-alkali, futhi ukukhula nakho kuhle., Amathuba okudluliselwa kwe-IPO esikhathini esizayo aphezulu kakhulu.